When President Trump signed the new Iran framework last week in Riyadh, the mood in Jerusalem was not celebration—it was bewilderment. For 14 months, Israel had been fighting a multi-front war that its generals believed was orchestrated from Tehran. Now, with a stroke of the pen, the White House declared that war over. The Iran deal, as it's being called, effectively neutralizes the Islamic Republic's ability to fund and arm proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah. But for Israel, the silence is deafening. The guns have stopped, but nobody in Tel Aviv seems to know what comes next.
The deal itself is a masterstroke of realpolitik. In exchange for a complete halt to uranium enrichment above 3.67% and a verifiable dismantling of IRGC-controlled missile sites in Syria, the United States has agreed to lift all secondary sanctions on Iran and unfreeze $150 billion in assets. Crucially, Iran has also pledged to cease all funding to non-state armed groups—including Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and Hezbollah—within 30 days. The effect has been immediate. Rocket fire from Gaza has stopped for the first time since October 7, 2023. Hezbollah has pulled back its Radwan forces from the border. The Houthis, suddenly cash-strapped, have halted their Red Sea attacks.
Israel’s Strategic Vacuum
But here's the problem: Israel was never prepared for a diplomatic endgame. Its entire post-October 7 strategy was built on military escalation—crushing Hamas in Rafah, degrading Hezbollah’s precision-guided missile stockpiles, and killing Iranian commanders in Damascus. The goal was to make the cost of war unbearable for Tehran. It worked, but it also boxed Israel into a corner. Now, with the deal in place, Israel has no clear objective. The war cabinet has stopped meeting. The IDF has no new operational orders. The prime minister's office has issued no statements about a political horizon. It's as if the country has been driving at 100 mph and suddenly slammed on the brakes.
The Domestic Fallout
Inside Israel, the reaction is fractured. Right-wing settlers are furious, accusing Trump of selling out the Jewish state. Left-wing activists see the deal as a chance to restart negotiations for a two-state solution—but that idea is dead in the water after October 7. The military establishment is quietly relieved but publicly cautious. "We don't trust the Iranians," a senior IDF intelligence officer told me. "But we also don't have a plan for what to do with a quiet border." That lack of planning is now the most dangerous variable. Without a war to fight, Israel must confront the deep internal divisions that October 7 temporarily papered over: the judicial overhaul protests, the ultra-Orthodox draft exemption, the settler violence in the West Bank. These are not problems that bombs can solve.
What Washington Expects
The White House, meanwhile, is moving on. Trump has already turned his attention to trade deals with Saudi Arabia and a potential normalization agreement. The message from Washington is clear: the war is over, and Israel needs to adapt. But adaptation requires leadership, and that's in short supply. Prime Minister Netanyahu, who built his career on opposing the 2015 Iran deal, now finds himself having to sell a much more comprehensive version to his own coalition. He has no political capital left. The far-right factions in his government are threatening to bolt if he doesn't resume strikes on Iranian targets. The center-left wants him to resign. And the Israeli public, exhausted and traumatized, just wants to know that October 7 can never happen again. The deal doesn't guarantee that—it only changes the rules of the game.
The Unanswered Question
So what does Israel do next? The honest answer is: nobody knows. The military is drawing up contingency plans for a post-war Gaza, but those plans are still classified and deeply contested. The intelligence community is scrambling to reassess the threat landscape without Iranian funding. And the political class is paralyzed. This is not the victory lap Israel expected. It's an awkward, uncertain pause—and the silence is louder than any siren. For now, the only certainty is that the old playbook is gone, and no one has written a new one.